Tuesday, 30 June 2020

New fence

It being wet, another Horton Lane clockwise this morning, just a few days after that  noticed at reference 1.


At the Old Moat Garden Centre, outside the smart new gates of which two cars were waiting for the off, I came across some smart new fencing, the left hand end of which is snapped above. Panels of a sort of green plastic clad, steel wire frame, neatly finished with slats of treated wood. I thought rather good, but probably also rather expensive.

Not many people about, maybe a dozen joggers and cyclists all told, all men. Not counting a large family, what I took to be a couple, half a dozen children and a grandchild in a push-chair, spread right across both path for people and path for cyclists, with no social-distancing regard for me coming the other way. I thought it simplest to step into the road to pass them.

Both cafés in West Ewell open. Sandwich shed in Longmead Road open. Some customers in all of them.

Sundry skips, but none containing entire bricks at the road end. There was a lorry or tractor tyre leaning up against a skip, more than a metre high, which I probably could have had, but it was rather heavy to be rolling several hundred yards down the road. We had such a thing for a (very successful) sandpit, many years ago, and the thought was that this one could serve the same purpose. With a heavy lid to keep out cats and foxes. Probably not to be.

The third triumvirate

The second triumvirate was that formed by Messrs. Octavian, Antony and Lepidus in 43BCE, in the aftermath of the assassination of Julius Caesar. And after a proper number of battles, Octavian emerged at the top of the greasy pole and stayed there for many a long year. Antony committed suicide, while Lepidus was deemed harmless and allowed to retire to obscurity. See references 1 and 2. Similar scenarios were played out in the Soviet Union, getting on for two thousand years later. And I dare say there were others.

It seems that a third triumvirate has now been formed by Messrs. Johnson, Gove and Cummings. Johnson mans the front office, Cummings mans the back office and Gove floats between the two. But will one of them will emerge at the top of the greasy pole, the unquestioned and unchallenged leader?


But what will they do from the top of their pole? Apart from pulling stunts like telling the tides to slow down, already tried by that illustrious predecessor King Canute, how can they make a difference? How does all the hot air generated at the top of the pole turn into something which feeds, clothes, houses - or even entertains the rest of us?

When I was small, the influential book at reference 3 was doing the rounds, popularising the notion that the country was really run by the civil service. Politicians come and go, 'strut and fret their hour upon the stage', but the civil service gets the job done. See reference 4. But also popularising the notion that politicians have a hard time of it implementing policies on which they may possibly have been elected but which the civil service, mysteriously exerting some collective personality and will, did not approve of. With the result that politicians and their advisors - aka kitchen cabinets - have been puzzling about how to manage down the civil servants ever since - while at the same time still needing them to do the work. A circle which we have yet to square here in the UK, although some think that making senior appointments in the civil service overtly political appointments, parachuting in friends and allies, is the way ahead. A sort of compromise between rule by front office and rule by back office.

Today, the FT tells us that Johnson is not that fussed, but that Gove and Cummings have got their bits between their teeth. They are going to do for what they call the blob, a term apparently lifted from some science fiction film of the 1950's. We shall see how they get on. 

But it leaves me glad to be out of it: even in the lower reaches of the service, being charged to do stuff which one believes is wrong - or at least mistaken - is neither satisfactory nor satisfying.


Reference 2: Antony & Cleopatra - W. Shakespeare - 1607.

Reference 3: The Anatomy of Britain - Antony Sampson - 1962. A book which Wikipedia tells me ran to five more versions over the following 40 years.

Reference 4: Macbeth - W. Shakespeare - 1607. Act.V, Sc.V, Line.25. Lightly edited.

Reference 5: http://psmv4.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-eminence.html. Previous notice of one of the triumvirs.

Monday, 29 June 2020

A record

This afternoon, I downloaded the largest file that I have ever seem on a PC - probably excluding the quite possibly huge files which support Windows and Office but which are barely visible to me - with this one weighing in at 260,143 kilobytes. Rather more than a quarter of a gigabyte. Maybe films and music come in at this sort of weight, but I don't do either so I don't know about them.

In the Hathi viewer

The file being a scanned image of a book first published 1499, with this copy now held by the Getty Research Institute and delivered to me via the Hathi Trust digital library and the Digital Public Library of America. The book being described at reference 1 and brought to my attention by reference 2 - this last being a bit off my beaten track and to which I shall return in due course.

In the Acrobat viewer

Turned up by Bing

A book for the erudite, perhaps the sort of thing that James Joyce would have liked and could presumably have read in the original - more doubtful whether he could have afforded one - but livened up with a good dose of mild pornography and a large number of woodcuts. Which last caught my eye, as both my father and his woodcutting brother-in-law were rather fond of both schoolboy smut and Rabelais, by whom the present book is noticed. Perhaps it was not readily available in English in their time, so it passed them by.

But luckily for me, it is now, so a nearly new copy is on its way from somewhere in Germany for a couple of tenners or so.

Title page

Reference 1: La Hypnerotomachia di Poliphilo: cioè pugna d'amore in sogno, dou'egli mostra, che tutte le cose humane non sono altro che sogno, & doue narra molt'altre cose degne di cognitione - Colonna, Francesco - 1527. Or perhaps 1545 - with Bing claiming that MDXXXXV should really be MDXLV.

Reference 2: The ruins lesson: meaning and material in Western culture - Susan Stewart - 2020.


Reference 4: https://dp.la/.

Patent application

When I was young, pyjama parties were all the thing among smart sets, like the Young Conservatives, not that I ever got invited to one. So this afternoon, mindful of the pent-up demand for any kind of party, particularly among thirty-something suburbanites, I thought I might patent something along the following lines.

The raw materials

The basic product

So I buy myself some plastic hoops from ebay or wherever, half of them a metre and a half in diameter, the other half a quarter of a metre in diameter. Assemble along the lines suggested in the second snap. Hire a furloughed costumier to decorate some of them, some for her and some for him. And some plain.

Then said suburbanites can throw vodka and hoop parties on warm summer evenings in their gardens. With built in social distancing. That is to say, the party people can wear whatever they like, subject only to the rule that they must wear one of these hoop contraptions, hanging around their necks, under or over whatever else they might be wearing. Au choix

A little experimentation might be advisable to get the dimensions right, in particular the length of the four spokes joining the two hoops together. Maybe also add a touch of spice by making them do something unpleasant, like generating mild electric shocks and sparking if they touch.

PS 1: the metre and a half being a compromise between the words of the Bullingdon bomber and those of the medicos.

PS 2: otherwise a red letter day, as at Scrabble as BH was kind enough to place a 'Z' near enough the triple word for me to score 66 with 'Quiz'. The biggest go-score for a while, my having some dim memory of having used all seven letters at some point in the lockdown. But despite carrying on pretty well, our combined score was only slightly more than 500 - with our only having got to 550 very occasionally and 600 never. We live in hope.

Sunday, 28 June 2020

Depressing start

A quick skim of the viral part of the Financial Times this morning made a rather depressing start to the week, with the following, rather alarming graphic for the US catching my eye.


In so far as managing the news amounts to managing the problem, as many politicians seem to believe, I suppose cutting down testing might be helpful. I then asked Bing to search on the term 'positive tests per million population' and he turned up lots of serious looking web sites offering a huge range of mostly well presented statistics, of which a sample of one follows.


Perhaps things in the UK are not so bad after all. So the good news that there is a huge amount of data out there. Employ enough statisticians and listen to what they have to say and you might come up with the right policies. 

With the bonus that my old trade of population statistician must be doing very well just presently, along with various medical specialities, the people who build online shopping web-sites (which seem to be getting better by the hour) and the people who deliver parcels.

Reference 1: https://www.ft.com/content/801e3716-2c18-38a8-b443-d4c85193ae23. The source of the first graphic.

Reference 2: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-cases-covid-19. The source of the second graphic.

Dancing water

Moved by a spot of social distancing with the supervisor to have another go with the dancing water, the first time for what might be getting on for a couple of months. She was not terribly impressed.

In fact she was much more impressed with her Barbie playhouse, which I do not much care for at all, and her new bus, noticed at reference 2. With this last paying a towed visit to the deep dark woods, along with the young trolls in their trailer, aka trolley. We learned that the eyes at the front of the bus go up and down in time with the wheels - this despite the absence of batteries. Singing of the usually popular ditty 'The wheels on the bus go round and round' was forbidden for some reason.

Later on I had another go with the dancing water and got on much better without an audience, despite the water now being cool rather than tepid. Dancing on maybe up to 75% of the circumference. And when I got a circular wave going around the bowl and managed to synchronise that with the thrusts of the palms, things really got going. I learned that more energy in with the palms can result in more energy out in the form of dancing water.

Reference 1: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/2020/05/series-2-episode-1.html. The last recorded outing.


Reference 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_04ZrNroTo. Not my idea of wheels on the bus at all, but this clip appears to have attracted more than 1.5b - that is to say 1,500 million - views. Perhaps the supervisor was concerned that I might have been infected.

Series 2, Episode XII

Polly and her friends had been very taken with Grandpa's stories about the giant weed just past the exit from Ruxley Lane, on his new-found route, the Ruxley Lane anti-clockwise. A weed first noticed here at reference 2.

On the case

Off the case

So the other day, they asked to be taken along, with the results above. Polly was very pleased with herself, while Pedro was a bit annoyed that Grandpa had not taken more care with his part of the snap. Once again, Polly got all the glory.

Luckily, Grandpa made a bit of a diversion at this point by collecting a red bus which a nearby householder had put on its front wall for the first comer.

The ramp

When they got home, Pedro, as a special treat, was allowed to drive the bus down the ramp. Unfortunately, he didn't think to try the brakes first and in the event his feet did not reach far enough and the bus crashed when it got to the bottom. Luckily no-one was hurt and the bus was not damaged.

While Grandpa and Grandma were quite pleased the the flashing lights and flashing noises did not work, even when they tried changing the batteries. This may have been due to their not being able to find any kind of a switch - but in any event, they can honestly say that no (tiresome) lights and no (tiresome) noises are available.

PS 1: the new client can still get into a muddle with carelessly inserted images. I can't get the spacing between the first and second image quite right and I can't make head nor tail of the underlying html to correct it that way, a wheeze which sometimes used to work with the old client.

PS 2: later: went to the bother of copying the html to Notepad and playing with it there, eventually tracking down what I thought was the problem. But by the time that I got back to Blogger, the offending chunk of html seemed to have vanished and the image spacing was OK. All very mysterious - but I have brushed up my limited knowledge of html.

Reference 1: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/2020/06/series-2-episode-xi.html.

Reference 2: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/2020/06/giant-weed.html.

Group search key: wwwy.

Saturday, 27 June 2020

More vermin


I noticed the other day that the solstice stone near the bottom of the back garden had some kind of a small burrow underneath it. Probably something with four feet, but probably something smaller than a rat. Maybe these two chunks of brick will do the trick - the brick, as it happens, which fell apart during a brick walk - prompting the action noticed, for example, at reference 3.

Except that is not the first time, investigation revealing that I had clearly been doing something with cement at some point after the long-ago events noticed at references 1 and 2. 

Oddly enough, we are quite close to a solstice again. Are our four footed friends sensitive to such matters too? 

PS 1: I notice that there has been a lot of weathering in the ten years or so since the solstice stone was cast. Maybe there was something wrong with the mix. Maybe I did not wash the bucket used as a cast very carefully.

PS 2: the following morning (Sunday): half bricks pushed aside and burrow freshly dug out. And I now know that the stone is anointed with warm cooking fat from time to time, perhaps accounting for vulpine interest. Bricks returned to store. Watch and wait. Maybe cement action will be called for.



Vermin


Earlier this afternoon when I was walking the bricks, there was what looked like a young fox taking a great interest in the contents of our brick compost bin. Who just about moved off a little when I shouted and moved close armed with a hoe, but who came back again as soon as I moved off again. And another in the garden to the left, and yet another in the garden beyond the compost bin. 

With no free running dogs and no predators, these urban foxes are becoming far too bold and far too numerous.

I remembered, with some annoyance, about the house with a fox hole in its fence, letting foxes in and out of the island made by our back gardens, noticed at reference 2. And I dare say there are other holes, although I have failed to find them. Is it worth my having a word with the owner of this hole? Will it turn out to be one of those people who feed the foxes and think that they are cute?

I also remembered about the catapults of reference 1 and have now relieved my feelings by checking with Amazon. The one illustrated looks as if it would do the business. Perhaps chaps in the US take pot shots at squirrels and such like in their back yards of an evening with such a thing. Would I ever get the hang of the complicated sight - or is that just for show?

Reference 1: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/2020/05/a-trick-of-light.html.

An experiment with a shark


Having come across this shark at reference 1, having been prompted to go there by the (possibly discredited) paper at reference 2, I wanted to see whether it would survive all the layers of image processing between Wikipedia and the blog viewer - with the image having been moved across my laptop at least once and across the aether at least three times. Who knows how many times it has been compressed and de-compressed along the way?

I need a little trickery with the eyes to summon the shark.

Answer: yes. Click to enlarge, gaze at the image and the shark will appear.

Answer yes to Microsoft Word too. Paste the image into a word document, at something a lot less than full size, and the shark is still there. Furthermore, I can now gaze at the Blog image, without clicking to enlarge, and if I work at it a bit, the shark will still show up. A bit degraded, perhaps more cat-fish than shark, but there.

Reference 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autostereogram.

Reference 2: An adult eidetiker - Charles F. Stromeyer III - 1970.

Friday, 26 June 2020

And another irritation

A rather gross example

The otherwise admirable Financial Times online offering is being degraded, to my mind, by what seems like an increasing proportion of its stories being offered in video form rather than as text. With this post being triggered by a charity appeal which reached me yesterday coming in video form. I dare say I am showing my age, but I rather like getting my information in text form. Information which I can consume at my own pace, scrolling up and down the text to suit me and my hopefully growing understanding of the matter in hand. I still quite like consuming information from paper, despite the fact that I spend a considerable chunk of my waking day gazing at a computer screen.

I don't really want my messages coming in a noisy, thickly packaged video format which I have to consume at the suppliers' pace. Messages in which presentation and appearance are all too likely to have trumped content. All that effort which has gone into presentation and appearance - largely nugatory to my mind - and which might have been put into crafting a good quality text message.

Video format might be OK when all that is required is the transmission of simple orders from the centre, but hopefully we are still in the business of sharing information and building shared understanding.

PS 1: from where I associate to the thought that a government needs to be better organised than the one we have got if it is to dish out orders that convince, that carry weight - and get obeyed.

PS 2: another strain of this disease is the huge amount of effort that goes into creating fancy web sites, with the effort being concentrated on fancy rather than content. Or put another way, web sites which are designed to entertain and to generate advertisement revenue generating clicks, rather than to inform. With reference 1 being a rather gross example of this sort of thing.

Series 2, Episode XI

Bain's bottle

The label

At reference 1, I noticed a virtual visit to a new wine shop at Guildford to buy some of Alexandre Bain's fine white wine. Then last Sunday, we thought to try the one which was new-to-us, the Mademoiselle M 15. We rather liked it - and with the only catch being that they seem to have sold out of the stuff, with no trace of it on their web site this morning. Just as well we now have a few bottles in hand, having placed a second order, following that already noticed.

We rather liked the chicken too, Sainsbury's finest. To think that chicken was a luxury item when I was a child - and now it is the cheapest meat going, turkey perhaps aside. But turkey is not as convenient and - festal birds aside - I prefer chicken. Maybe chickens are much more efficient at turning animal feed into usable meat than cows. Maybe it has something to do with my recollection that a lot of their feed is something to do with waste from fish processing plants? Waste that cows are not fond of?

The personalised cork

Polly was fussing about alcohol consumption again. But she remembered that she had not got it quite right last time, standing on the top of the empty bottle, while Grandpa sloped off with something else which she hadn't noticed.

The only snag was that Polly is not terribly bright. So this time she tried standing on the cork, which was just as ineffective as her last effort. Not that Grandpa minded.

Note that not only do we have a cork with our new wine, it is a personalised cork stamped with the personal mark of the vigneron.

Reference 1: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/2020/06/topped-up.html.


Group search key: wwwy.

Horton Lane Clockwise


Done about a week ago.

There was a time when I used to walk the Horton Lane Clockwise more or less every day, outing or holiday days apart, snapped above for the benefit of those readers who may not know the area very well. It takes about an hour and a half. Note that the large red blob, marking where I live, is a proper estate, built on what had been farm land 1920-1950 or so, not one of the much more recent estates built on the sites of what had been the mental hospitals of the Epsom cluster, visible to the left.

Still not got the hang of the Microsoft Snip & Sketch marking tool: I have nothing like the control with the mouse that I would have had with a real pen or brush. That said, a useful product which I have come to like.


I was sorry to see that the Chain Saw Volunteers had been busy on Epsom Common again. When is someone going to tell them that, given the climate emergency (rather pushed into the background by the viral emergency), trees is good and cows is bad? See reference 1 for some of their previous outings.

Mainly gentlemen joggers down Horton Lane. Perhaps they were home workers who have displaced the lady joggers who had the place pretty much to themselves during the week, in the olden days.

Someone found it necessary to honk at me at the turning into Chessington Road for West Ewell as I was walking along the edge of the road to avoid an older lady on the footpath who did not look as if she knew or cared about social distancing. There was very little traffic about, so presumably someone who had got out of bed on the wrong side that morning.


Pleased to see that the star garden at the entrance to West Ewell was still up and running, even if I have not yet got the hang of taking pictures of roses with my telephone. Possibly something to do with depth of focus. Worth a stop should you be passing that way.

A little further on, the Luna Café remained open for business, with properly spaced chairs outside, although there were no customers that I could see. Not quite the right time of day for the bacon sandwich on factory white which I have been promising myself, so I couldn't help them out. 


The two Wellingtonia down Longmead Road seem to be doing alright - but non-scoring as they have yet to reach scoring dimensions.

The house just past Pound Lane which is often host to cars that I could not afford, sported a Range Rover (which seems to be favourite), a BMW lookalike and a rather more modest Vauxhall. Perhaps this last was for the daughter of the house while she steadied down.


Last but not least, a substantial brass tray - 3lbs 3oz of it - sporting a notice inviting me to take it away, which I did. Washed up nicely and now a useful addition to our stock of same. Possibly to be used as an infantile sand tray. I thought that given the modest irregularities of the rim, probably hand made. Perhaps Middle Eastern or Subcontinental?

Rain, mostly gentle, the whole way. Not a problem when one is properly tooled up. Much better than on a bicycle in the rain.



Group search key: wgc.

Tweet

At least two goldfinches in the oak tree by our small ponds late this morning, viewed from underneath the nut tree across the bit of lawn between. One sighting of one bird and a second sighting, perhaps half an hour later, of two birds, much higher up in the tree. They looked to be grazing on the small bugs - aphids? - which are no doubt to be found there.

The last confirmed tweet of a goldfinch was in December last year, noticed at reference 1, although there had been an unconfirmed tweet in March of this year.

Disaster 567

Batch 567

Batch 500

Yesterday, a long, hot day as it turned out, batch 567 started in the usual way. It rose OK during the first rise, perhaps a little too long, as the dough had become a little stickier than usual. After the second knead, it started to rise OK during the second rise. Looked in after about two hours, when the loaves were just about at rim level. Looked in a little later, and they seemed to have started sinking. Maybe the yeast had got tired and needed to rest a bit before getting going again - something I am sure I have read about at some point. But after about four hours, nothing much seemed to be happening, and I resorted to putting the loaves out in the direct, afternoon sunlight, something I have not done for years. Still nothing doing, so after a total of five and a half hours second rise (not a record, but I drew back from leaving them overnight, which might have been the right answer), put them in the oven, with the result illustrated above. Not what I was looking for at all.

Too late to try them yesterday, so the first loaf was opened up for breakfast this morning. And OK, it was a touch heavier and firmer than I was looking for, but it was very eatable, taken without butter or cheese. Quite moreish in fact and I ended up eating a fair sized chunk.

However, I expect it will get rather hard as it goes forward and it is possible that the stump will end its days as bread pudding. I had better check that we have the other ingredients.

Looking at the bread workbook, I see that I have fussed about collapse quite a bit over the years that I have been baking my bread. But, notwithstanding, I didn't find many examples of collapse, at least searching for likely words like 'collapse' and 'burst' did not turn many of them up. And in all the cases that I did turn up, I had explained that while the bread had not risen properly, it tasted splendid.

Then there is the disaster recorded at reference 1, with end result rather like this one. With the difference however that the second rise had been normal, if rather slow and allowed to go on too long, and the subsequent collapse was due to human error. We know what happened - unlike in the present case.

What is going to happen next time?

The way it is supposed to look is recorded at the end of reference 2. At which time I was using the bread tins from Hong Kong, rather than the bread tins from Tavistock. But I don't think that this change is relevant here.

PS: the tops of batch 567 are much paler than usual, a golden brown rather than a deep brown. Not just a trick of the telephone. Being below the rims must have protected them somehow, fan oven notwithstanding.

Reference 1: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/2020/04/disaster-555.html.

Thursday, 25 June 2020

Counting pebbles

Figure 1

Contents

Introduction
Bricks
Fabrics
Counting pebbles
Counting the pebbles you can see
There is no right answer
A novel counting strategy
Some experiments
Consciousness
Conclusions
References

Introduction

I have posted on a number of occasions about counting things, most recently at reference 1. These posts were about one-dimensional counting, where the things to be counted were in a stack – like courses of bricks or the storeys of tower blocks – or in a row – like beads on a string. 

Here I think some more about the much more difficult problem of counting two dimensionally – things like the pebbles on the beach – something that some people, possibly challenged in other ways, are said to be able to manage. 

Figure 2
 
I have already set out some preliminaries at reference 6, where I introduced count sets (which pebbles are to be counted), count paths (what route shall we take across the two-dimensional beach for the purpose of one-dimensional counting) and count lists (the choices we make about vocalising the count). People do not behave in the orderly way suggested in the figure above – but it does serve to get us away from the idea of there being a right answer. The count is what you come to on the day; the count is what you choose to count on the day.

We start with a glance at two other two-dimensional counting opportunities, bricks and coarsely woven fabrics. With bricks easy compared with pebbles and fabrics intermediate.

Bricks
 
Figure 3

Two dimensional counting of the bricks in a wall is not too difficult, leaving boundary problems aside for the moment. Provided the bricks have been laid reasonably neatly, it is possible to scan the rows of bricks, known in the trade as courses, counting as one goes. Traversing one row from right to left, then dropping a row and traversing back from left to right. So long as one can hold one’s attention on the current brick and remember in which one direction one is going, the thing can be done. Getting into a rhythm seems to help, perhaps nodding the head slightly in time with the count, and one needs to proceed at a steady, even pace, otherwise one is apt to forget in which direction one is going. One might allow a short pause at the end of each row, to give the eyes and brain something of a rest – but not so much of a pause that one loses track of the next row.

In terms of the count sets and count paths of reference 6, there is little to do: we count the bricks by rows. We might do better with some count list designed for the job, but will we stick with regular count list, the numbers we learned as children and have used ever since. But if we ever get up to speed, maybe the auction people at references 7 and 8 would be worth another look.
 
Figure 4

Counting is still possible when the bricklaying gets a bit ragged, as the rows survive, but damage to the bricks can easily result in mistakes. Count set problems have not vanished.

Figure 5
 
But it gets much harder when the rows get longer, such as that snapped above. Much concentration is needed to keep one’s attention on the current row, concentration which is hard to maintain for any length of time.

Fabrics
 
Figure 6

Counting the squares on this fabric is much the same as counting bricks, although the lack of variation make it harder to keep one’s place – although counting chequerboard fashion or missing out every other row and column seem to help with that.

Figure 7
 
This one is quite a lot harder, with the rows and columns being badly degraded. One might do better counting some subset, perhaps the vertical red stitches, although one then has the boundary problem of red stitches morphing into red blobs, and reds morphing into purples and blues.

Figure 8a
 
I found this one harder still. Rows and columns degraded and not much else to go on.

Figure 8b

And it does not get any better when magnified.
 
Figure 9

Here we are back with something more like the bricks, but with the individual elements too small to keep track of with any comfort.

Note that in the first and last of these five examples, there is, in some sense at least, a right answer. 

There is very little fudging of the count set variety. But this is not the case in the second example. The third and fourth examples – the latter being a magnified version of a portion of the former – are intermediate in this respect.

Clearly, different materials present different problems, possibly requiring different techniques and strategies to count their features. The weave at Figure 7 above, for example, comes close to pebbles on the beach, while that at Figure 6 above comes close to bricks in a wall. But our present interest is pebbles on the beach.

Counting pebbles

I turn back now to those pebbles, the sort of smooth, rounded stones, mostly flints, that one gets on beaches, where there are no rows, ragged or otherwise, although counting is made a lot easier than it might otherwise be by the pebbles sorting themselves out, with sensible sized, washed pebbles sitting on top of the sand below (or whatever else might be below), rather than being mixed up with it. At least most of the time.

We do a sum to give us an order of magnitude. Suppose 100 metres of beach, on average 10 metres deep, promenade to sea, and 1 metre thick. 1,000 cubic metres. Suppose 50^3 pebbles to the cubic metre. Which gives us 125 times 10^6 or 125 million pebbles – which is a large number, but not unmanageably so. Maybe roughly twice the number of people who live in England. And very small indeed when compared with things like the number of molecules or atoms in a cubic metre of air – which Bing suggests might be of the order of 3 times 10^25.

Figure 10

One approach would be to take a digger to the beach. Dig it all up. Put the pebbles through some screens and sieves to get rid of all the unwanted material – small stones, sand, litter and debris of one sort or another. Perhaps wash them. So we now have all the pebbles in the qualifying size band – say around one centimetre to ten centimetres in diameter – and we can put them through a counting machine. Which we suppose can deliver a reliable count; that you get the same answer if you put them through again and two such machines always give us the same answer.

So we can count what we dig up, but what exactly is it that we are digging up? How do we know when to stop the diggers? And the answer is, on a real beach, that we don’t know. There are always going to be grey areas at the margins, perhaps at the edge of the sea, perhaps where the beach washes over onto the promenade, or over onto the shelves of flat bedded rock which bound part of the beach. Possibly grey areas which only disturb the count in proportion to the area of the beach, rather than disturb the count in proportion to its volume. But disturbance nonetheless. 

And then are we really counting what we dig up? How replicable is the business of moving the pebbles to the screening machinery? In hundreds of digger loads or lorry loads, how many odds and ends are there going to be? I associate to the nice, simple fact that there is supposed to be exactly one national insurance number for everybody, for the twenty million or so people of working age – and to all the odds and ends that exist at the margins of that system. And then there is the screening process itself. What about, for example, all the pebbles near the permitted margins of one centimetre and ten centimetre? Given the numbers involved it seems unlikely that this process is replicable, that one is going to get exactly the same count every time.

Furthermore, our count is destructive. Although we could put the pebbles back on the beach, the boundaries will have been disturbed, the grey areas will have been disturbed, some pebbles will have been lost or damaged – and any recount is likely to come up with a different answer. The count is not replicable.

In any event, in what follows we concentrate on what can be done in the way of non-invasive counting. The sort of counting you can do by looking without touching, or even standing. We suppose our beach to be static in the sense that the pebbles are not moving about and that two such non-invasive counts should, in principle, give the same answer. A count which is replicable – at least, that is what we hope.

All a bit unrealistic but it is a place to start our count.

Counting the pebbles you can see

The first question is which pebbles are to be counted, in the jargon of reference 6, what or where is the count set, with the first answer being that one counts the pebbles that one can see. And the second answer being that there must be a boundary. Perhaps the concrete promenade at the top, the sand at the bottom and two wooden groins at the sides. Bearing in mind that groins may not run all the way from sea to dry land and they are often partially covered, as can be seen by asking Bing or Google for ‘beach groins’.

Figure 11

Another answer might be that one counts a roughly circular, growing patch of pebbles, centred roughly at one’s feet. There may be no end point, but there is a start and there is growth. So in the middle panel of the figure above the count has proceeded, is proceeding, in an anti-clockwise spiral. The count path is spiralling outwards. And even if one does not know when to stop, one does know how many pebbles one has counted so far. And one has done away with the problem of short, covered or missing groins. As they used to tell us at school, it is playing the game that is important, not who wins, who comes top. Who counts all the pebbles. What counts is the process, not the result.

However, just for the moment, we suppose that the task is to count something like all the pebbles in the left hand panel of the above. Perhaps the area has been staked out with pegs and string, as suggested in the right hand panel. String which brings boundary problems of their own, but which are hopefully small relative to the number of pebbles so enclosed. 

Note that by counting we mean counting, not estimating. Not, for example, taking the product of an estimate of the number per cubic metre and multiplying it by an estimate of the volume, which is what we did above, albeit rather crudely. Or an estimate of the number per square meter and multiplying it by an estimate of the area. The latter being more or less equivalent to counting what can be seen, which is what we are after.

Counting with a computer is, at one level at least, straightforward. With the big advantage of the computer being that it can mark up its image of the beach as it goes, something the average brain certainly can’t do in a conscious way. It might do the job in two passes of the image. In the first pass it overlays the image with something like the count set of reference 6, perhaps expressed as a large array of pixels, with each pixel taking one of two values: 1=region and 0=null, with all the regions being separated, one from another, by null pixels. 

Figure 12

Regions do not touch and they certainly do not overlap. The count proceeds by finding a region pixel, incrementing the count and then setting all the pixels for this region to null, easy enough to code as the regions will have the property that one can get from one pixel to any other without leaving the region. The counts stops when all the pixels are null. A process which will work well enough when the pixels are small relative to the pebbles, to the regions. The figure above is a sketch of an array of pixels, towards the end of this destructive counting process. Note that it is only the representation of the count set which is being destroyed, not the underlying image, which can be reused.

Note also that the red blobs do not need to be very accurate. It is probably good enough if they are maximal within the region they represent. With good enough meaning that there is enough there to relate regions back to the raw image of the pebbles, to be sure that one has got a reasonable count set.
Turning back from the computer to people, I recall reading about a chap who, if on the beach and bored, would count the pebbles there to give himself something to do. Sadly, I cannot now find him: there are plenty of curious ‘savant’ skills out there, but I have not yet found this particular one, although I have found a chap who, with what was not much more than a glance, could count the matches which had been emptied out onto the floor. See for example, references 2 and 5.

But the average human brain cannot manage these tricks. Perhaps there is a problem with the amount of working memory needed – sometimes said to be less than ten chunks of information – even leaving aside the various tricky boundary problems, knowing whether or not a given bit of image is to count as a new pebble or not.

There is no right answer

Figure 13
 
As with Figures 1 and 13 above, the problem here is knowing which pebbles, which parts of the beach are to be counted. Anything in the snap which can honestly be made out with the naked eye? Including all the pebbles which are underwater? And even supposing one made such a count, how replicable would it be? Would one person get the same result a second time? What about a second person? To which question, the emerging answer seems to be that counting pebbles is not going to be replicable. And given that probabilities are creeping into the answers given at reference 6, even doing it by computer may not give a replicable count.

Figure 14

In the left hand panel of the snap above we have clear boundaries, in the form of a box. And the pebbles have been selected, washed and cleaned. No marginal bits and pieces of dead crab, other debris, sand, slate or anything else.

But there is still room for doubt. What about what is lurking down below, in the zone highlighted in purple, bottom right? What about the two, possibly more, pebbles lurking down there? With the answer depending on where the eyes are, on the state of the pebbles – are they wet and/or shiny? – and on the lighting conditions. We are probably going to get a slightly different answer every time we do the count, every we time we make, we build the count set.

And even if we had a complete description in our computer of the sizes, shapes and positions of all the pebbles involved, deciding exactly which ones were to count as potentially visible would be reasonably complicated and would involve setting several, more or less arbitrary visibility-flavoured thresholds. There is no canonical answer to the question ‘how many pebbles can you see’. All we can be sure about it is that the number you see cannot be more than the number that there are, which can be determined in this case by tipping them out of their box and spreading them out.

At reference 6, we avoided these problems, to some extent, with the notion of a count set of regions. This what was available to be counted on the day, on this particular occasion. Accepting that on a different day, even with the same beach, with the identical configuration of pebbles (in practise rather unlikely), one might have a different count set. And even if one had the same count set, the rules for count path, the vagaries of count paths, do not deliver the same count on each occasion.

A novel counting strategy

Figure 15
 
In the linear, one dimensional case maintaining the cursor, maintaining one’s position, is manageable, certainly with practise. Two dimensional bricks are harder, but possible, as illustrated above. Two dimensional pebbles, of irregular size, shape and position, are much harder – but maybe there is something that can be done, short of memorising the whole picture and ticking off the pebbles, in the way of a computer, as sketched above.

Trying to count the pebbles by rows works after a fashion, in the way that we previously counted rows of bricks, provided the rows are reasonably short. But even then, one is soon defeated by the pebbles not being in tidy rows, by not being sure whether one has already counted a pebble or not.

Maybe a savant, one of these people with special skills, either could – or could train himself to – unconsciously maintain a record of his moves, the zig-zag red line in the right hand panel of the figure above, moving slowly up the beach, with the front end of the record growing piecemeal as pebbles are counted and marked off and with the back end of the record fading away. The savant holds his (these savants are more commonly men) attention on this front end and knows which pebbles he has counted recently and where he needs to count next. With the count being maintained as long as the record is rolling slowly but steadily forward. A device which means he only needs to hold the recent past in memory, not the all the past. A device which does not look too bad to a normal in the example shown above, where the width of the patch of pebbles to be counted is small – but which will rapidly get hard as the width gets large.

Maybe a savant could do it, could slowly pan up a bounded beach, unconsciously maintaining this sort of rolling image in memory, counting the pebbles and ticking them off as he went.

I note that some savants can train themselves to do very improbable mental feats and that some footballers (for example) can train themselves to do very improbable things with footballs. Zen archers who can shoot at a distant target with their eyes shut. Australian aborigines who can do improbably well at throwing stones, feats like throwing a pebble into a waste paper bin thirty metres away – a loose translation of the paper at reference 4. Plus I have seen YouTube clips of footballers doing much the same sort of thing. The brain does respond – in some mysterious way – to sustained effort at such things. Provided there is feedback, as there is in these cases, mostly from the eyes. 

Quite different would be an approach which might be helpful if one was doing the job with statistical clerks. Cut the image into rectangular blocks of modest size. Phase 1: delete the smaller parts when a pebble appears in two or more blocks. Phase 2: dish out the blocks to be counted, one block to the clerk. Phase 3: pass the blocks around and count again, just to be on the safe side. Phase 4: add up the blocks. All of which seems a bit complicated for a general purpose brain to tackle.

Some experiments

In the light of the foregoing, I tried some experiments.

Experiment 1

Figure 16
 
In this experiment, I tried counting the pebbles – known to the trade as inch and a half shingle – outside our back door, where the beach, as it were, is neatly bounded by concrete and the problem of what pebbles to count in large part vanishes. The idea being to start at the bottom of left hand panel of the snap above and to work up. With the result that the counting was easy enough; it was easy enough to lock onto a pebble, to increment the count and then to move on, to left or right. What I found more or less impossible was knowing which pebbles I had already counted when I came back again the other way.

A variation was just to count, but without attempting to count all the stones, in the spirit of the count paths of reference 6. The task was to maintain the count, fixing and counting one pebble after another, with the only rule being that one did not count any one pebble more than once, with the process being illustrated in the snap above. The aim was to count a band of pebbles, and while the band might be a bit ragged at the edges, the idea was that in the middle of the band one counted everything, the count was exhaustive. This is sketched in the right hand panel of the snap above.

The problem here was that even the business of fixing on the next pebble, even when one was not too fussy about exactly which pebble, used up brain resources and it was quite easy for the count to go astray, to miss a number out or to use a number twice.

Experiment 2

Figure 17
 
Here the idea was, rather than counting real stones, to see how one got on with the computer where one was able to mark the image up as one went along. So the raw image was loaded into the Microsoft Snip & Sketch tool. I then used the highlighter tool therein to mark off stones as I counted them. It was not as easy as I had first thought and one needed to get the right colour and width of highlighter and to develop a convention for marking the stones. One needs to try various colours, it not being obvious which colour is going to work best given the strength and variety of colours in the raw image. I think the idea should be to mark right across the width of the stone at it widest point, in one stroke. Then, inter alia, the count should be the number of strokes, in the top right hand panel of the snap above, around sixty.

But in order to cope with the more difficult cases it needed to be done carefully and neatly, which required concentration – which meant in turn that one was apt to lose the count. Not enough brain cycles available to do both.

Bottom left, the idea was to draw around each stone, counting as I went. Which worked quite well, but which was quite tiring, both for hand and brain. Working in the rather organic way shown seemed easier than trying to do it in regular lines.

A weakness was a tendency to obscure the smaller pebbles in the gaps between the large pebbles, which resulted in some of them getting left out. In some cases there was doubt about whether one was seeing a new pebble at all. Was it just the shadow of one which had already been counted? Furthermore, after the event, one could not check the count as one could no longer always distinguish small stones from spaces which were intentionally left blank.

A slight refinement was to draw around the pebble when it was large and to fill it in when it was small. Which worked even better – except that it was more or less impossible to check after the event. The colouring in was a prop during the proceedings, not a record which would be worked on after the event.

Consciousness

Some sorts of simple counting, like counting the steps up a long staircase, like counting the down strokes on the pedals on a bicycle, can be done more or less unconsciously. If one is a habitual counter, one does not even need to turn the count on as a conscious decision, or (on another view of agency) as a conscious registration of a decision already taken by the unconscious.

Counting the storeys of a tower block does not come so easily and requires both the conscious decision to count and conscious attention to maintain the count. I have, for example, never found myself in front of a tall building, half way through the count, not having much idea how I got there. Something which can happen, for example, when one is driving, perhaps while composing the dinner menu for the day following. One suddenly realises one has got somewhere without any memory of the business of getting there. Nor, incidentally, can I remember ever having dreamed that I was counting either steps or storeys.
Note that driving monopolises the vision system, of which we have just one. And counting monopolises the speaking system, of which we have just one again, even if the speaking in question is silent. While computers are not constrained in either way.

We seem to have here another example of the tricky link between attention and consciousness: they do seem to be linked – but one can attend to something (for example, driving the car) while not being conscious of it – while we do seem to need to attend to something in order to be conscious. One has to be conscious of something, even if one is trying to reach, to touch the void – something which I believe Buddhists aspire to. Or, slightly off-message here, some high altitude mountaineers. While for some activities, like taking a tricky shot at golf, one really does try to empty one’s mind, while maintaining one’s visual attention on the ball below. To try to stop consciousness getting in the way of unconscious performance. Rather oxymoronically, to consciously try not to be conscious.

Counting the bricks on a wall or the pebbles on a beach is much harder again than counting the floors of a tower block and I doubt whether either count could proceed without a conscious start or while doing anything else. And either count would be fatally disturbed by almost any kind of interruption, almost any kind of stimulus.

Which is not to say that the heavy lifting involved in counting pebbles is conscious. What is conscious is maintaining visual attention on the bit of beach being counted. But there is no need to be aware of how that visual stimulation is converted into a count – although it may well be that this conversion can be learned, trained or improved with practise and feedback. 

Conclusions

We have poked around in various aspect of the beach counting problem.
 
Figure 18
 
The bad news is that, given the nature of the beast, there is no right answer, even if we had some way of checking the counts. The concept of ‘the number of pebbles on the beach’ is not well defined. One just can’t count the pebbles on the beach. 

The good news is that one can certainly do some counting, using the pebbles as a prop, but one cannot be sure that one has not missed some pebbles out and counted other pebbles more than once. And if the count goes on for a long time, the count itself may become a bit ragged, one cannot be sure than one has not missed out some numbers and used other numbers more than once.

Maybe my recollection of a pebble counter is a little off the mark, in that maybe what the chap in question was doing was estimating rather than counting, perhaps using some of the unusual mathematical skills pointed up in reference 2 – for example the ability to do large sums, to calculate day of the week of a date and to calculate intervals in days from two dates – in both these last two cases taking proper account of leap years – with reference 3 being about a lady who can do some of this. In her case, more of a problem than a gift, at least for the first half of her life. 

Given that neither Bing nor Google turned up much that was relevant for the search key ‘counting pebbles beach’, maybe the best one can do is hope that someone comes forward who can count the pebbles on a beach.

One better, I am encouraged by a report in chapter 3 of reference 5, of a pair of twins, George and Charles, severely handicapped in other ways, who, when a box of matches was dropped on the floor, were both able to count the matches, without doing much more than seem to glance at them, and shout out the number – which turned out to be correct.

Figure 19

And then there are the people, again severely handicapped in other ways, who, by dint of studying something like the perpetual calendar (from Wikipedia) snapped above, seem to be able to train their brains to say the day of the week dates for great chunks of years – with a weakness being the rather odd bounds that these chunks tend to have, perhaps 50 years, perhaps 500. And I don’t think any of them can cope with the switch from Julian to Gregorian calendars in 1582. Puzzling out the calendar above is left as an exercise for the reader.

So maybe a relatively easy next step – for someone with the right equipment – would be to try to train a  neural network to count the pebbles in something like the left hand panel of Figure 15 above. If a brain can train itself to do far-fetched things of the savant variety, a modern neural network ought to manage to count pebbles. We could worry about exactly how it was doing it afterwards.

Figure 20

PS: both Bing and Google turned up lots of hits about aids to teaching children to count and about collecting interesting pebbles. Slightly nearer the mark, Google turned up something about sampling pebbles on the beach at Robin Hood’s Bay in order to produce an analysis of roundness. A place we last visited perhaps thirty years ago. Top right here. A place perhaps better known for the distinctive white domes of the nearby RAF Fylingdales, on the right as to head up to Whitby. Bottom left here.. A place which I was able to run down as Wikipedia provided me with the coordinates to feed into gmaps. Wikipedia also alleges that Serco are mixed up in this bit of critical national infrastructure, the people who try to do tracking & tracing, although you would not guess that from the write up on the RAF web site. But I have learned that the station commander is a Wing Commander, Commander in senior service terms, one down from a captain. Very much a hot seat should the cold war start to run hot again.

References


Reference 2: The savant syndrome: an extraordinary condition. A synopsis: past, present, future - Darold A. Treffert – 2009.


Reference 4: A Dynamical Analysis of the Suitability of Prehistoric Spheroids from the Cave of Hearths as Thrown Projectiles - Andrew D. Wilson, Qin Zhu, Lawrence Barham, Ian Stanistreet, Geoffrey P. Bingham – 2016.

Reference 5: Extraordinary People: Understanding savant syndrome – Darold A. Treffert – 1989.