Wednesday 26 May 2021

Peaked this time

A month later, the latest version of the FT's viral graphic. As it turned out, it had not peaked last time, with that coming a couple of weeks later. With the current falling away looking to be mainly accounted for by improvements in Europe.

When will be get a satisfactory explanation of the Indian explosion since the New Year? Will it turn out to be a replay of the explosion in Europe if the Autumn of last year? Population of the former said to be 1,400m with a density of 500/sq km, while the latter is 750m with a density of a very modest 70/sq km, this last number dragged down by Europe including everything up to the Caspian. But even if we shrink down to the European Union we still only get to 500m and 100/sq km, so still a lot less dense than India, statistical complications notwithstanding. While by way of comparison China, where there are not many cases at all, is 1,400m and 150/sq km. Bangladesh is 170m and 1,200/sq km. UK is 70m and 270/sq km. So maybe some combination of large size, high (but by no means the highest) density, many slums, rural poverty and a big-mouth leader is the answer.

Should we be worried about the steady, broad bands that are the Middle East (green) and the rest of Asia (lower pink)?

PS: all the populations and densities come from Wikipedia, where they are routinely and conveniently included in country entries. But I have not read the footnotes and I have no idea how careful the compilers have been. Summary at reference 2.

Reference 1: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/2021/04/peaky.html. The graphic's last outing.

Reference 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_density.

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